Sonne, Mond und Sterne: Welchen Einfluss üben Planeten auf das Erdklima aus?

Jeden Tag schiebt der Mond zwei Flutberge über den Planeten. An der nordamerikanischen Ostküste in der Bay of Fundy hebt und senkt sich das Meer dabei um satte 13 Meter. Da liegt es nahe, dass die Gezeitenkräfte von Mond, Planeten und Sonne auch bei der irdischen Klimagestaltung eine Rolle spielen. Nicola Scafetta, der bereits in unserem Buch „Die kalte Sonne“ als Gastautor dabei war, publizierte am 15. Mai 2016 in Advances in Space Research eine vergleichende Analyse zwischen den Planetenbewegungen und der Temperaturentwicklug auf der Erde während der vergangenen 165 Jahre. Dabei stieß Scafetta auf große Ähnlichkeiten und fand in den Datensätze immer wieder die Peridoden 20 und 60 Jahre. Die Erde und das Erdklima als Bestandteil des Planetensystems, ein nicht ganz abwegiger Gedanke. Hier die Kurzfassung der Arbeit:

High resolution coherence analysis between planetary and climate oscillations
This study investigates the existence of a multi-frequency spectral coherence between planetary and global surface temperature oscillations by using advanced techniques of coherence analysis and statistical significance tests. The performance of the standard Matlab mscohere algorithms is compared versus high resolution coherence analysis methodologies such as the canonical correlation analysis. The Matlab mscohere function highlights large coherence peaks at 20 and 60-year periods although, due to the shortness of the global surface temperature record (1850–2014), the statistical significance of the result depends on the specific window function adopted for pre-processing the data. In fact, window functions disrupt the low frequency component of the spectrum. On the contrary, using the canonical correlation analysis at least five coherent frequencies at the 95% significance level are found at the following periods: 6.6, 7.4, 14, 20 and 60 years. Thus, high resolution coherence analysis confirms that the climate system can be partially modulated by astronomical forces of gravitational, electromagnetic and solar origin. A possible chain of the physical causes explaining this coherence is briefly discussed.

Querdenker wie Scafetta haben es nicht leicht. Viele Kollegen hegen Skepsis gegenüber den vorgeschlagenen planetaren Mechanismen. Bereits 2014 ist Scafetta daher in die Offensive gegangen und versuchte in einem Beitrag in Astrophysics and Space Science die Argumente seiner Gegner zu klären. Hier die Kurzfassung:

Discussion on the spectral coherence between planetary, solar and climate oscillations: a reply to some critiques
During the last few years a number of works have proposed that planetary harmonics regulate solar oscillations. Also the Earth’s climate seems to present a signature of multiple astronomical harmonics. Herein I address some critiques claiming that planetary harmonics would not appear in the data. I will show that careful and improved analysis of the available data do support the planetary theory of solar and climate variation also in the critiqued cases. In particular, I show that: (1) high-resolution cosmogenic 10Be and 14C solar activity proxy records both during the Holocene and during the Marine Interglacial Stage 9.3 (MIS 9.3), 325–336 kyear ago, present four common spectral peaks (confidence level ⪆95 %) at about 103, 115, 130 and 150 years (this is the frequency band that generates Maunder and Dalton like grand solar minima) that can be deduced from a simple solar model based on a generic non-linear coupling between planetary and solar harmonics; (2) time-frequency analysis and advanced minimum variance distortion-less response (MVDR) magnitude squared coherence analysis confirm the existence of persistent astronomical harmonics in the climate records at the decadal and multidecadal scales when used with an appropriate window lenght (L≈110 years) to guarantee a sufficient spectral resolution to solve at least the major astronomical harmonics. The optimum theoretical window length deducible from astronomical considerations alone is, however, L⪆178.4 years because the planetary frequencies are harmonics of such a period. However, this length is larger than the available 164-year temperature signal. Thus, the best coherence test can be currently made only using a single window as long as the temperature instrumental record and comparing directly the temperature and astronomical spectra as done in Scafetta (J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys. 72(13):951–970, 2010) and reconfirmed here. The existence of a spectral coherence between planetary, solar and climatic oscillations is confirmed at the following periods: 5.2 year, 5.93 year, 6.62 year, 7.42 year, 9.1 year (main lunar tidal cycle), 10.4 year (related to the 9.93–10.87–11.86 year solar cycle harmonics), 13.8-15.0 year, ∼20 year, ∼30 year and ∼61 year, 103 year, 115 year, 130 year, 150 year and about 1000 year. This work responds to the critiques of Cauquoin et al. (Astron. Astrophys. 561:A132, 2014), who ignored alternative planetary theories of solar variations, and of Holm (J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys. 110–111:23–27, 2014a), who used inadequate physical and time frequency analyses of the data.

Nicola Scafetta steht mit seinem Modell zur planetaren Klimabeinflussung bei weitem nicht alleine da. Im Jahr 2014 erschien sogar ein Sonderband in der Fachzeitschrift Pattern Recognition in Physics mit dem Titel:

Pattern in solar variability, their planetary origin and terrestrial impacts

Darin enthalten ist unter anderem ein Beitrag von J.-E. Solheim:

The sunspot cycle length – modulated by planets?
The Schwabe frequency band of the sunspot record since 1700 has an average period of 11.06 yr and contains four major cycles, with periods of 9.97, 10.66, 11.01 and 11.83 yr. Analysis of the O–C residuals of the timing of solar cycle minima reveals that the solar cycle length is modulated by a secular period of about 190 yr and the Gleissberg period of about 86 yr. Based on a simple harmonic model with these periods, we predict that the solar cycle length will in average be longer during the 21st century. Cycle 24 may be about 12 yr long, while cycles 25 and 26 are estimated to be about 9 and 11 yr long. The following cycle is estimated to be 14 yr long. In all periods during the last 1000 yr, when the solar cycle length has increased due to the 190 yr cycle, a deep minimum of solar activity has occurred. This is expected to re-occur in the first part of this century. The coherent modulation of the solar cycle length over a period of 400 yr is a strong argument for an external tidal forcing by the planets Venus, Earth, Jupiter and Saturn, as expressed in a spin-orbit coupling model.

Interessant auch dieser Artikel aus dem selben Band von I. R. G. Wilson:

The Venus–Earth–Jupiter spin–orbit coupling model
A Venus–Earth–Jupiter spin–orbit coupling model is constructed from a combination of the Venus–Earth–Jupiter tidal-torquing model and the gear effect. The new model produces net tangential torques that act upon the outer convective layers of the Sun with periodicities that match many of the long-term cycles that are found in the 10Be and 14C proxy records of solar activity.

Siehe auch den folgenden Beitrag von 2012 aus dem Blog Astro-Climate-Connection:

Jupiter Tidal Torque Modell

Ebenfalls in Pattern Recognition in Physics erschien 2013 der folgende Artikel von J.-E. Solheim:

Signals from the planets, via the Sun to the Earth
The best method for identification of planetary forcing of the Earth’s climate is to investigate periodic variations in climate time series. Some natural frequencies in the Earth climate system seem to be synchronized to planetary cycles, and amplified to a level of detection. The response by the Earth depends on location, and in global averaged series, some planetary signals may be below detection. Comparing sea level rise with sunspot variations, we find phase variations, and even a phase reversal. A periodogram of the global temperature shows that the Earth amplifies other periods than observed in sunspots. A particular case is that the Earth amplifies the 22 yr Hale period, and not the 11 yr Schwabe period. This may be explained by alternating peak or plateau appearance of cosmic ray counts. Among longer periods, the Earth amplifies the 60 yr planetary period and keeps the phase during centennials. The recent global warming may be interpreted as a rising branch of a millennium cycle, identified in ice cores and sediments and also recorded in history. This cycle peaks in the second half of this century, and then a 500 yr cooling trend will start. An expected solar grand minimum due to a 200 yr cycle will introduce additional cooling in the first part of this century.

Aus dem gleichen Heft dieses Paper von R. Tattersall (2013):

The Hum: log-normal distribution and planetary–solar resonance
Observations of solar and planetary orbits, rotations, and diameters show that these attributes are related by simple ratios. The forces of gravity and magnetism and the principles of energy conservation, entropy, power laws, and the log-normal distribution which are evident are discussed in relation to planetary distribution with respect to time in the solar system. This discussion is informed by consideration of the periodicities of interactions, as well as the regularity and periodicity of fluctuations in proxy records which indicate solar variation. It is demonstrated that a simple model based on planetary interaction frequencies can well replicate the timing and general shape of solar variation over the period of the sunspot record. Finally, an explanation is offered for the high degree of stable organisation and correlation with cyclic solar variability observed in the solar system. The interaction of the forces of gravity and magnetism along with the thermodynamic principles acting on planets may be analogous to those generating the internal dynamics of the Sun. This possibility could help account for the existence of strong correlations between orbital dynamics and solar variation for which a sufficiently powerful physical mechanism has yet to be fully demonstrated.

Natürlich blieben auch die Planeten-Kritiker nicht untätig. Im Juni 2014 argumentierten S. Poluianov & I. Usoskin in Solar Physics gegen einen planetaren Einfluss auf die Sonnenaktivität:

Critical Analysis of a Hypothesis of the Planetary Tidal Influence on Solar Activity
The present work is a critical revision of the hypothesis of the planetary tidal influence on solar activity published by Abreu et al. (Astron. Astrophys. 548, A88, 2012; called A12 here). A12 describes the hypothesis that planets can have an impact on the solar tachocline and therefore on solar activity. We checked the procedure and results of A12, namely the algorithm of planetary tidal torque calculation and the wavelet coherence between torque and heliospheric modulation potential. We found that the claimed peaks in long-period range of the torque spectrum are artefacts caused by the calculation algorithm (viz. aliasing effect). Also the statistical significance of the results of the wavelet coherence is found to be overestimated by an incorrect choice of the background assumption of red noise. Using a more conservative non-parametric random-phase method, we found that the long-period coherence between planetary torque and heliospheric modulation potential becomes insignificant. Thus we conclude that the considered hypothesis of planetary tidal influence on solar activity is not based on a solid ground.

Kurz zuvor hatten McCracken, Beer und Steinhilber (2014) im selben Journal das Gegenteil berichtet:

Evidence for Planetary Forcing of the Cosmic Ray Intensity and Solar Activity Throughout the Past 9400 Years
Paleo-cosmic-ray (PCR) records based on cosmogenic 10Be and 14C data are used to study the variations in cosmic-ray intensity and solar activity over the past 9400 years. There are four strong correlations with the motion of the Jovian planets; the probability of occurring by chance being < 10−5. They are i) the PCR periodicities at 87, 350, 510, and 710 years, which closely approximate integer multiples of half the Uranus–Neptune synodic period; ii) eight periodicities in the torques calculated to be exerted by the planets on an asymmetric tachocline that approximate the periods observed in the PCR; iii) the maxima of the long-term PCR variations are coincident with syzygy (alignment) of the four Jovian planets in 5272 and 644 BP; and iv) in the time domain, the PCR intensity decreases during the first 60 years of the ≈ 172 year Jose cycle (Jose, Astron. J. 70, 193, 1965) and increases in the remaining ≈ 112 years in association with barycentric anomalies in the distance between the Sun and the center of mass of the solar system. Furthermore, sunspot and neutron-monitor data show that three anomalous sunspot cycles (4th, 7th, and 20th) and the long sunspot minimum of 2006 – 2009 CE coincided with the first and second barycentric anomalies of the 58th and 59th Jose cycles. Phase lags between the planetary and heliospheric effects are ≤ five years. The 20 largest Grand Minima during the past 9400 years coincided with the latter half of the Jose cycle in which they occurred. These correlations are not of terrestrial origin, nor are they due to the planets’ contributing directly to the cosmic-ray modulation process in the heliosphere. Low cosmic-ray intensity (higher solar activity) occurred when Uranus and Neptune were in superior conjunction (mutual cancellation), while high intensities occurred when Uranus–Neptune were in inferior conjunction (additive effects). Many of the prominent peaks in the PCR Fourier spectrum can be explained in terms of the Jose cycle, and the occurrence of barycentric anomalies.

2015 beschrieb auch Brian T. Johnston auf WUWT einen Zusammenhang zwischen den Planeten, Sonnenaktvität und dem irdischen Klimawandel:

The Cattle Cycle, Sunspots, Climate Changes and the Orbital Interactions of the Gas Giant Planets
Researchers have long suspected a link between climate variations on the earth and the changes on the sun, especially the relationship between the sunspot cycle and the earth’s climate. Others have speculated that the periods of the sunspot cycle are related to the orbits of Jupiter and Saturn due to the fact that the that the period of Jupiter is 11.86 years, which is similar to the sunspot cycle of 11.8 years and the periodic conjunction of Jupiter and Saturn approximately every 20 years. While these appears to be strong links there has never been truly solid evidence to correlate these divergent cycles. This article shows that there is a relationship between all of these cycles, but that there are also powerful influences associated with Uranus and Neptune. It is demonstrated that the fundamental economic cycles of the world are based upon the cycles of the planets as is the timing and magnitude of the sunspot cycle and the also the changes in the earth’s climate which are at the foundation of the world’s economic cycles. It also shows that even though all of these cycles are linked the cycles of the sun are not the causes of the world’s economic cycles, but rather the cycles are driven by the changes in the electromagnetic climate of the solar system that appear to be associated with the interactions of the planets.

Und der Mond? Auch der wird von der Wissenschaft nicht vergessen. Im Oktober 2014 veröffentlichten Osafune et al. 2014 in den Geophysical Research Letters das folgende Paper:

Role of the oceanic bridge in linking the 18.6 year modulation of tidal mixing and long-term SST change in the North Pacific
The impact of the 18.6 year modulation of tidal mixing on sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific is investigated in a comparative study using an ocean data synthesis system. We show that remote impact through a slow ocean response can make a significant contribution to the observed bidecadal variation in wintertime SST near the center of action of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the eastern Pacific. A comparative data synthesis experiment showed that the modified SST variation is amplified by bidecadal variation in the westerly wind. This relationship between SST and wind variations is consistent with an observed air-sea coupled mode in the extratropics, which suggests that a midlatitude air-sea interaction plays an important role in enhancing the climate signal of the 18.6 year modulation. This result supports the hypothesis that the 18.6 year tidal cycle influences long-term variability in climate; thus, knowledge of this cycle could contribute toward improving decadal predictions of climate.

Ein spannendes Feld, das noch ziemlich am Anfang seiner Erforschung steht. Trotzdem lassen die überraschend passgenauen Korrelationen aufhorchen. Die Erde im planetaren Raum. Auf die weitere Entwicklung dieses Forschungszweiges sind wir schon gespannt.